Working capital

Diagnostic for 2026-10-12

Forecast accuracy

How close the earlier forecasts landed

no earlier forecast has a week that has both closed and is covered by this statement; accuracy needs a forecast made before a period this statement now covers

Upload again once a few forecast weeks have passed and this fills in: what was predicted for each week, what the bank actually closed at, and the gap between them.

Ageing derived from Due Date against 2026-10-09. Balances are after part payments and credit notes.

Bar length is exposure; the solid head is the allowance. Stage 3 is past due over 90 days, IFRS 9’s presumed default.

• Loss rates derived from history use 90 days past due as the default point (IFRS 9 B5.5.37) and treat an invoice still unpaid 180 days past due as not recovered, because the ledger records no write-offs. Change either by supplying your own rates.
• Historical rates look backward. IFRS 9 also requires forward-looking adjustment for conditions expected over the life of the receivables; apply that overlay through the rates you supply.
• Balances are net of credit notes and part payments. Amounts already provided for in your ledger are not deducted here.
• Supply your own rates on the next upload to override any band; the derived figure stays visible beside it.

CFO brief

What the numbers say, and what to do this week

# Kestrel & Vine Digital, LLC

## 13-week low $70,269.49 in week 13, ending $70,269.49 in week 13: chasing Ridgeway Health Partners is worth $0.00, 9 invoices overdue even by their own customer's usual pattern.

**Cash position and 13-week outlook** · 16 October 2026 · USD
Statement 1 April 2025 to 9 October 2026 (18 months of history) · Forecast 12 October 2026 to 10 January 2027 (13 weeks)

## 1. Where the cash stands

Closing bank balance is **$150,447.19**.
Over the statement period the business was cash **consuming**, at an average of $5,899.13 per month.

**Cash runway: 111 weeks** at the current burn.

### Working capital

| Metric | Value | Formula and inputs |
|---|---|---|
| **DSO** | 54.8 days | (average AR / credit sales) * days — average_AR 442,772.5, credit_sales 4,497,720.0, days 557, balance_basis average of opening and closing |
| **DPO** | 25.4 days | (average AP / COGS) * days — average_AP 112,930.0, COGS 2,472,367.64, days 557 |
| **DIO** | 0.0 days | (average inventory / COGS) * days — average_inventory 0.0, COGS 2,472,367.64, days 557 |
| **CCC** | 29.4 days | DSO + DIO - DPO — DSO 54.83, DIO 0.0, DPO 25.44 |

CCC basis: includes inventory.

## 2. The 13-week picture

Opening **$150,447.19** → closing **$70,269.49**.
The low point is week 13 at $70,269.49.

No cash floor is set, so the first breaching week is NOT AVAILABLE. Set one on the upload page and the next run reports it.

Each week's closing balance is the next week's opening balance, and the chain reconciles across all 13 weeks.

Confidence: weeks 1–4 rest on invoices already issued; weeks 9–13 on behavioural projection. 91% of projected receipts come from customers whose own payment history is HIGH confidence.

## 3. The actions that matter this week

Open receivables are $605,655.00 across 13 customers: 59% current, 11% at 1-30 days, 24% at 61-90 days, 6% at 90+ days; nothing at 31-60 days.

Expected credit loss allowance (IFRS 9, simplified approach): **$38,498.56**, 6.36% of open receivables, on rates derived from your own payment history. The matrix and the evidence behind each rate are in the workbook.

1. **Call Orchard Lane Bakery about KV-1113 ($4,160.00).** It fell due on 2025-07-31 and has now passed that customer's own median payment lag — it was expected on 2025-08-08. Late even by their standards, which is what makes it worth a call rather than a statement.

2. **Call Fieldstone Brewing Co. about KV-1168 ($8,410.00).** It fell due on 2026-01-31 and has now passed that customer's own median payment lag — it was expected on 2026-02-20. Late even by their standards, which is what makes it worth a call rather than a statement.

3. **Chase Northgate Auto Group ($147,895.00, 61-90 bucket).** Risk score 95.7, 24.4% of the receivables book. Call the account owner today and agree a dated payment commitment for the overdue balance.

Together the two largest exposures account for $351,045.00 — 58.0% of the receivables book.

## 4. Notes and limits

- **forecast accuracy** — no earlier forecast has a week that has both closed and is covered by this statement; accuracy needs a forecast made before a period this statement now covers.
- 2 repeating payment(s) were identified but not projected into the forecast: Brightdesk Software (1x, about 21,600) - only 1 occurrence(s); fewer than 3, so not projected forward; Keystone Mutual Insurance (1x, about 17,900) - only 1 occurrence(s); fewer than 3, so not projected forward. The forecast does not carry them.
- 2 credit note(s) present as negative invoices, reducing AR by 4,810.00.
- 9 invoice(s) are past due_date + their customer's own median lag: they have broken their own payment pattern.
- The receivables file carries no ageing bucket columns, so buckets were derived from each invoice's due date against 2026-10-09.

Watch list

Who has changed how they pay

2 slowing · 2 improving · 5 broken their own pattern

• Northgate Auto Group

  broke its patternslowing

  Trend: used to pay 8 days late, now pays 17 days late — 9 days slower than before.

  This week: one open invoice has passed even that usual delay, so it is late by their own standard, not just yours.

  Outstanding $147.9k.

  The slide costs roughly $3.6k of extra financing on the current balance.

• Fieldstone Brewing Co.

  broke its pattern

  Trend: used to pay 18 days late, now pays 20 days late — 2 days slower than before.

  This week: one open invoice has passed even that usual delay, so it is late by their own standard, not just yours.

  Outstanding $33.7k.

  The slide costs roughly $185 of extra financing on the current balance.

• Orchard Lane Bakery

  broke its pattern

  Trend: used to pay 6 days late, now pays 8 days late — 2 days slower than before.

  This week: one open invoice has passed even that usual delay, so it is late by their own standard, not just yours.

  Outstanding $4.2k.

  The slide costs roughly $23 of extra financing on the current balance.

• Lumen Fitness Studios

  broke its pattern

  This week: one open invoice has passed even that usual delay, so it is late by their own standard, not just yours.

  Outstanding $14.0k.

  Based on 1 settled invoices — a thin history, so treat the trend as indicative.

• Tidewater Legal LLP

  broke its patternimproving

  Trend: used to pay 67 days late, now pays 15 days late — 51 days faster than before.

  This week: one open invoice has passed even that usual delay, so it is late by their own standard, not just yours.

  Outstanding $27.6k.

  Based on 5 settled invoices — a thin history, so treat the trend as indicative.

• Harbor Point Dental Group

  slowing

  Trend: used to pay 3 days late, now pays 8 days late — 5 days slower than before.

  Outstanding $8.9k.

  The slide costs roughly $122 of extra financing on the current balance.

• Copperleaf Home Goods

  improving

  Trend: used to pay 15 days late, now pays 10 days late — 5 days faster than before.

  Outstanding $80.8k.

Trend compares two medians the customer has already demonstrated — the later half of their settled invoices against the earlier half. This week is about one specific invoice. A customer can be improving overall and still be late on something right now, which is why both are shown rather than combined into a single verdict. Nothing here is predicted.

Where to start

What each call is worth

Your lowest week is week 13 at $70.3k. Each figure below is how much that improves if the customer pays on their due date instead of when they usually do.

1. 1Ridgeway Health Partners

   +$0

   Moves $132.4k from week 4 into week 3. They usually pay 5 days after the due date.

2. 2Copperleaf Home Goods

   +$0

   Moves $80.8k from week 2 into week 1. They usually pay 10 days after the due date.

3. 3Northgate Auto Group

   +$0

   Moves $42.7k from week 6 into week 3. They usually pay 17 days after the due date.

4. 4Granite Peak Insurance Agency

   +$0

   Moves $22.5k from week 2 into week 1. They usually pay 25 days after the due date.

5. 5Bluewater Logistics Co.

   +$0

   Moves $16.9k from week 4 into week 3. They usually pay 6 days after the due date.

6. 6Sable Creek Outdoor

   +$0

   Moves $11.2k from week 3 into week 2. They usually pay 9 days after the due date.

These are counterfactuals, not forecasts: the arithmetic of what happens if a customer pays on their due date. It is not a prediction that they will. Payments out are held constant, so every figure reflects collections alone.

Not available

What this run could not tell you, and why

• First shortfall week

  You have not told us the balance you never want to fall below.

  To get it: Enter a minimum cash balance on the upload form and we will report the first week the forecast breaches it.

• Change since last run

  This is your first analysis, so there is nothing to compare against.

  To get it: Your next upload will show what moved, week by week.

• Forecast Accuracy

  no earlier forecast has a week that has both closed and is covered by this statement; accuracy needs a forecast made before a period this statement now covers

These are absences, not zeroes. CashLens never substitutes a plausible figure for one it cannot derive from your files — a number you cannot trace back to a document you supplied is worth less than an honest gap.