Working capital

Diagnostic for 2026-08-31

Forecast accuracy

How close the earlier forecasts landed

no earlier forecast has a week that has both closed and is covered by this statement; accuracy needs a forecast made before a period this statement now covers

Upload again once a few forecast weeks have passed and this fills in: what was predicted for each week, what the bank actually closed at, and the gap between them.

Ageing derived from Due Date against 2026-08-26. Balances are after part payments and credit notes.

Bar length is exposure; the solid head is the allowance. Stage 3 is past due over 90 days, IFRS 9’s presumed default.

• Loss rates derived from history use 90 days past due as the default point (IFRS 9 B5.5.37) and treat an invoice still unpaid 180 days past due as not recovered, because the ledger records no write-offs. Change either by supplying your own rates.
• Historical rates look backward. IFRS 9 also requires forward-looking adjustment for conditions expected over the life of the receivables; apply that overlay through the rates you supply.
• Balances are net of credit notes and part payments. Amounts already provided for in your ledger are not deducted here.
• Supply your own rates on the next upload to override any band; the derived figure stays visible beside it.

CFO brief

What the numbers say, and what to do this week

# Ilupeju Foods Industries Limited

## 13-week low ₦290,370,390.77 in week 1, ending ₦462,312,929.38 in week 13: chasing Kano Central Stores Plc is worth ₦100,124,450.15, 6 invoices overdue even by their own customer's usual pattern.

**Cash position and 13-week outlook** · 16 October 2026 · NGN
Statement 1 March 2025 to 26 August 2026 (18 months of history) · Forecast 31 August 2026 to 29 November 2026 (13 weeks)

## 1. Where the cash stands

Closing bank balance is **₦417,372,526.96**.
Over the statement period the business was cash **generative**, at an average of ₦7,269,332.56 per month.

### Working capital

| Metric | Value | Formula and inputs |
|---|---|---|
| **DSO** | 71.1 days | (average AR / credit sales) * days — average_AR 835,992,628.96, credit_sales 6,405,392,859.65, days 545, balance_basis average of opening and closing |
| **DPO** | 46.3 days | (average AP / COGS) * days — average_AP 365,337,869.02, COGS 4,303,820,978.74, days 545 |
| **DIO** | 25.9 days | (average inventory / COGS) * days — average_inventory 204,160,000.0, COGS 4,303,820,978.74, days 545 |
| **CCC** | 50.7 days | DSO + DIO - DPO — DSO 71.13, DIO 25.85, DPO 46.26 |

CCC basis: includes inventory.

## 2. The 13-week picture

Opening **₦417,372,526.96** → closing **₦462,312,929.38**.
The low point is week 1 at ₦290,370,390.77.

No cash floor is set, so the first breaching week is NOT AVAILABLE. Set one on the upload page and the next run reports it.

Each week's closing balance is the next week's opening balance, and the chain reconciles across all 13 weeks.

Confidence: weeks 1–4 rest on invoices already issued; weeks 9–13 on behavioural projection. 94% of projected receipts come from customers whose own payment history is HIGH confidence.

## 3. The actions that matter this week

Open receivables are ₦645,328,635.14 across 13 customers: 30% current, 26% at 1-30 days, 38% at 31-60 days, 6% at 90+ days; nothing at 61-90 days.

Expected credit loss allowance (IFRS 9, simplified approach): **₦17,272,915.64**, 2.68% of open receivables, on rates derived from your own payment history. The matrix and the evidence behind each rate are in the workbook.

1. **Call Kano Central Stores Plc about INV-4252 (₦57,491,692.08).** It fell due on 2026-07-26 and has now passed that customer's own median payment lag — it was expected on 2026-08-19. Late even by their standards, which is what makes it worth a call rather than a statement.

2. **Call Warri Foodstuffs Enterprises about INV-4281 (₦9,800,000.00).** It fell due on 2025-07-03 and has now passed that customer's own median payment lag — it was expected on 2025-07-17. Late even by their standards, which is what makes it worth a call rather than a statement.

3. **Chase Aba Wholesale Ventures Ltd (₦90,666,206.47, 31-60 bucket).** Risk score 32.2, 14.1% of the receivables book. Standard dunning cycle; monitor at the next run.

Together the two largest exposures account for ₦248,282,348.70 — 38.5% of the receivables book.

## 4. Notes and limits

- **forecast accuracy** — no earlier forecast has a week that has both closed and is covered by this statement; accuracy needs a forecast made before a period this statement now covers.
- AR ageing total (645,328,635.14) differs from the closing AR in the financial summary (1,003,185,257.93) by -357,856,622.79.
- No burn rate: net cash movement over the statement period is positive. Runway is not applicable rather than infinite.
- 6 invoice(s) are past due_date + their customer's own median lag: they have broken their own payment pattern.
- The receivables file carries no ageing bucket columns, so buckets were derived from each invoice's due date against 2026-08-26.

Watch list

Who has changed how they pay

3 slowing · 3 improving · 1 broken their own pattern

• Kano Central Stores Plc

  broke its patternimproving

  Trend: used to pay 32 days late, now pays 24 days late — 7 days faster than before.

  This week: one open invoice has passed even that usual delay, so it is late by their own standard, not just yours.

  Outstanding ₦157.6m.

• Benin Superstores Ltd

  slowing

  Trend: used to pay 9 days early, now pays 4 days late — 13 days slower than before.

  Outstanding ₦18.4m.

  The slide costs roughly ₦653.8k of extra financing on the current balance.

• Zaria Trading Company Ltd

  slowing

  Trend: used to pay 21 days late, now pays 28 days late — 8 days slower than before.

  Outstanding ₦45.8m.

  The slide costs roughly ₦941.6k of extra financing on the current balance.

• Ibadan Provisions Company Ltd

  slowing

  Trend: used to pay 9 days late, now pays 15 days late — 6 days slower than before.

  Outstanding ₦35.7m.

  The slide costs roughly ₦586.5k of extra financing on the current balance.

• Ogun Retail Group Ltd

  improving

  Trend: used to pay 9 days late, now pays 4 days late — 5 days faster than before.

  Outstanding ₦41.7m.

• Aba Wholesale Ventures Ltd

  improving

  Trend: used to pay 78 days late, now pays 72 days late — 5 days faster than before.

  Outstanding ₦90.7m.

Trend compares two medians the customer has already demonstrated — the later half of their settled invoices against the earlier half. This week is about one specific invoice. A customer can be improving overall and still be late on something right now, which is why both are shown rather than combined into a single verdict. Nothing here is predicted.

Where to start

What each call is worth

Your lowest week is week 1 at ₦290.4m. Each figure below is how much that improves if the customer pays on their due date instead of when they usually do.

1. 1Kano Central Stores Plc

   +₦100.1m

   Moves ₦100.1m from week 2 into week 1. They usually pay 24 days after the due date.

2. 2Aba Wholesale Ventures Ltd

   +₦90.7m

   Moves ₦90.7m from week 3 into week 1. They usually pay 72 days after the due date.

3. 3Onitsha Market Traders Ltd

   +₦89.1m

   Moves ₦89.1m from week 3 into week 1. They usually pay 31 days after the due date.

4. 4Ogun Retail Group Ltd

   +₦41.7m

   Moves ₦41.7m from week 2 into week 1. They usually pay 4 days after the due date.

5. 5Ibadan Provisions Company Ltd

   +₦35.7m

   Moves ₦35.7m from week 4 into week 1. They usually pay 15 days after the due date.

6. 6Benin Superstores Ltd

   +₦18.4m

   Moves ₦18.4m from week 2 into week 1. They usually pay 4 days after the due date.

These are counterfactuals, not forecasts: the arithmetic of what happens if a customer pays on their due date. It is not a prediction that they will. Payments out are held constant, so every figure reflects collections alone.

Not available

What this run could not tell you, and why

• Cash runway

  Your business took in more than it paid out over this period, so there is no burn rate to divide into.

• First shortfall week

  You have not told us the balance you never want to fall below.

  To get it: Enter a minimum cash balance on the upload form and we will report the first week the forecast breaches it.

• Change since last run

  This is your first analysis, so there is nothing to compare against.

  To get it: Your next upload will show what moved, week by week.

• Forecast Accuracy

  no earlier forecast has a week that has both closed and is covered by this statement; accuracy needs a forecast made before a period this statement now covers

These are absences, not zeroes. CashLens never substitutes a plausible figure for one it cannot derive from your files — a number you cannot trace back to a document you supplied is worth less than an honest gap.